Defense Acquisitions: Charting a Course for Improved Missile Defense Testing

Defense Acquisitions: Charting a Course for Improved Missile
Defense Testing
"...The Missile Defense Agency's mission is to develop an integrated and
layered BMDS to defend the United States, its deployed forces, allies,
and friends. In order to meet this mission, MDA is developing a highly
complex system of systems--land, sea and space based sensors,
interceptors and battle management. Since its initiation in 2002, MDA
has been given a significant amount of flexibility in executing the
development and fielding of the BMDS. To enable MDA to field and
enhance a missile defense system quickly, the Secretary of Defense in
2002 delayed the entry of the BMDS program into the Department of
Defense's traditional acquisition process until a mature capability was
ready to be handed over to a military service for production and
operation. Therefore, the program concurrently develops, tests and
fields assets. This approach helped MDA rapidly deploy an initial
capability. On the other hand, because MDA can field assets before all
testing is completed, it has fielded some assets whose capability is
uncertain.

Because MDA develops and fields assets continuously, it combines
developmental testing with operational testing. In general,
developmental testing is aimed at determining whether the system design
will satisfy the desired capabilities; operational testing determines
whether the system is effective, survivable, and suitable in the hands
of the user. MDA conducts testing both on the ground and in flight. The
most complex of these is an end-to-end flight test that involves a test
of all phases of an engagement including detecting, tracking and
destroying a target with an interceptor missile. An end-to-end
intercept involves more than one MDA element. For example, a recent
intercept test involved a target flown out of Kodiak, Alaska, tracked
by the AN/TPY-2 radar located in Alaska, and the Beale upgraded early
warning radar located in California, the Sea-based X-band radar and an
Aegis radar located at different points in the Pacific. All of the
radars communicated with fire control centers in Alaska to guide an
interceptor launched from California to hit the target over the Pacific
Ocean.

Due to the complexity, scale, safety constraints, and cost involved,
MDA is unable to conduct a sufficient number of flight tests to fully
understand the performance of the system. Therefore, MDA utilizes
models and simulations, anchored by flight tests, to understand both
the developmental and operational performance of the system. To ensure
confidence in the accuracy of modeling and simulation the program goes
through a process called accreditation. The models are validated
individually using flight and other test data and accredited for their
intended use. Models and simulations are used prior to a flight test to
predict performance, the flight test is then run to gather data and
verify the models, and then data is analyzed after the flight and
reconstructed using the models and simulations to confirm their
accuracy.

MDA intends to group these models into system-level representations
according to user needs. One such grouping is the annual performance
assessment, a system-level end-to-end simulation that assesses the
performance of the BMDS configuration as it exists in the field. The
performance assessment integrates element-specific models into a
coherent representation of the BMDS. Fundamentally, performance
assessments anchored by flight tests are a comprehensive means to fully
understand the performance capabilities and limitations of the BMDS.

In addition to testing, modeling and simulation, and performance
assessments, MDA also has a formal process for determining when a newly
fielded asset or group of assets can be declared operational--that is,
cleared for use by the warfighter in operational situations. MDA uses a
variety of information as a basis to assess a new capability for
declaration. For example, MDA will define in advance tests, models, and
simulations it will use to base a specific decision on whether an asset
or capability can be declared ready for fielding. Each capability
designation so designated represents upgraded capacity to support the
overall function of BMDS in its mission as well as the level of MDA
confidence in the system's performance.

To assess testing related progress in fiscal year 2008, we examined the
accomplishments of ten BMDS elements that MDA is developing and
fielding. Our work included examining documents such as Program
Execution Reviews, test plans and reports, and production plans. We
also interviewed officials within each element program office and
within MDA functional directorates. In addition, we discussed each
element's test program and its results with DOD's Office of the
Director, Operational Test and Evaluation. We also interviewed
officials from the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for
Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics.

Test, Targets and Performance Challenges Continue During Fiscal Year
2008:

MDA continues to experience difficulties achieving its goals for
testing. During fiscal year 2008, while several tests showed progress
in individual elements and some system level capabilities, all BMDS
elements experienced test delays or shortfalls. Most were unable to
accomplish all objectives and performance challenges continued for
many...."
Reference: www.gao.gov

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